What do you think will happen if we don't pass the aid for Ukraine?

Please define "we". This is a international community so you can't assume that everyone lives in the same country as you.

The Default Country, I guess
- We're on a lemmy.ml community, so Mali I guess
- Rome?
- The country that's not part of the rest of the world
Well, who else in the world has been trying to a pass multibillion dollar aid package to Ukraine for the past couple months? The aid is about to get voted on this weekend.
- I don't follow every countries politics and what bills they're trying to pass. I barely keep track of my own country's stuff.
- Well, I don’t know, but multiple countries in the EU have been debating and passing multibillion dollar packages to Ukraine.

Either the EU manages to step in and largely fill the gap, or Ukraine will have to give in. Russia can then ingest Ukraine, continue to seed political distrust in Western countries and then potentially start another war in Europe a few years later.

Alternatively, the NATO/EU/US may decide to become directly involved in the war in Ukraine to avoid a further destabilization of Europe. In that case, Russia can be beat, although I'd expect Russians to be more motivated to go into war.

I'm not sure whether the way the war against Ukraine plays out has too much influence on whether China decides that it needs to start a war against Taiwan though.

Why do people talks so easily about US starting war with Russia? They each have thousands of nukes and if it devolves into nuclear war then earth is fucked beyond repair for at least a few centuries. This is not WW2 anymore, a war doesn't mean dropping with a bunch of soldiers on a beach, it means an apocalyptic destruction of earth.
- I live in Germany, was a teenager in the 80s. We would have been ground zero then, and would be ground zero now.
  I've already spent all the fear of nuclear war in the 80s. I am just not able to fear nuclear war now, anymore. The fear just dulls after nearly half a century.
  The choice is to let a madman bring war to one country after another or to stop it - with the cost that stopping has a miniscule chance of me getting vaporized.
  But doing nothing will keep the risk of nuclear war for another 50 years. It has to be stopped now, appeasement never did anything good.
- That is true but at the same time, a line has to be drawn somewhere. If we just let Russia win because they have nukes, there is nothing to stop them from invading and absorbing other neighbors. We can’t let the threat of nukes keep us from doing anything and allowing for Russia and China to just invade anywhere they want.
- We have 122 vaults spread all over, just in case, no? ... No?
Russia can then ingest Ukraine, continue to seed political distrust in Western countries and then potentially start another war in Europe a few years later.
Holy shit this is the most mapgame-brained comment of all time. You mean Russia will get enough war score to annex Ukrainian territories, wait a few years for aggressive expansion to die down, spend some admin points to press the "sow discontent" button, then war when the casus belli is ready? Like a classic EU4 blob?
Stop gaming and read some books.
- I mean.
  It's not like Russia has never done any of those things individually.
  So doing them again in that sequence seems right.
I'm by no means an expert in international relations. However, with respect to your last paragraph, I do think that China monitors the development carefully. I would even go so far and assume that they won't act on Taiwan until the situation in the Ukraine is decided. Not because the cases are so similar, but because China and Russia seem to be important partners for each other. Right now, China is supporting Russia financially by buying resources from them (if I'm not mistaken) and also supporting them with equipment embargoed by the EU/US. China will probably know what it's risking when they attack Taiwan and I doubt that they want to create that sort of situation while one of their most important partners (might be mistaken here) is in a war that binds their resources and weakens their support for China.
On the other hand, they could also try to start the war on Taiwan soon, hoping that NATO/US stretch their support too thin.
Tl;Dr: I don't know either.
- The number of fronts in this war seems to keep expanding.
  I hate that I predicted this all the way back when the “two week” lockdown was starting, and that nobody listened to me and I got accused of “valuing the economy over Grandma”.
  If my account hadn’t been deleted I could link to my comment where I predicted:
  lockdowns would extend far longer than two weeks
  it would ruin the global economy
  causing world war 3 to start
  I was just laughed at basically.

If the US doesn't pass aid for Ukraine Russia will have the ability to attrition a win eventually.

More importantly for the US, China will see the lack of support as a sign of weakness increasing the timeline for a active conflict over Taiwan.

Ukraine is a test case for Taiwan that the Chinese government is paying extreme attention to

If the US passes aid for Ukraine Russia will have the ability to attrition a win eventually. You don't have to take my word for it either https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
- At this point, an Ukrainian military victory is extremely unlikely. But equally, it would be expensive for Russia to capture western Ukraine, and even more expensive to hold it. So the most likely outcome is some sort of negotiated peace. At that point, wouldn't Ukraine get a better deal if they are in a position of at least some strength?
- Lets look at the conditions inside of russia. Russia's air defenses are stretched very thin right now. And if you don't believe me, look at the amount of oil refineries destroyed, and the fact ukraine can strike 600 miles into russia.
  Not to also mention, the only warfare russia seems to be able to do is meat wave tactics. For those who don't know, its sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get mowed down by machine guns.
  And don't forget what's happening around belgorod inside of russia, russia is using border guards as if they were trained army.
It would be folly for China to equivacate the two.

I do still have at least a little hope Ukraine is going to win. A territory does not typically successfully invade another territory a second time. However, I continue to be outspoken for Ukraine. Without aid, Ukraine will probably do what Chechnya is doing and just resort to dirtier tactics, which I'm glad Ukraine is not doing yet.

Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
dirtier
tactics
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
- Thanks, Pipey.
What about that time they sneaked bombs onto a civilian lorry and blew him up with his family as he was crossing the bridge out of Crimea?
- Unless my memory is just bad, this is the first I heard about that, though even that is much less dirty than the worst done by Chechnya (or Russia), whose national values I wonder about at this point.

Exact same thing that will happen if you pass aid to Ukraine, except less people will die.

- Western backed regime in Ukraine is literally kidnapping people off the streets and forcing them into fighting. Even mainstream western media admits this https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html
- So the 15000 civilian deaths caused by Ukraine bombing its own provinces before Russia intervened, the constant efforts by Russia to resolve the issue diplomatically, the naked refusal of the West to even engage with Russia, the West openly backing a fascist coup in Ukraine, and then arming it with the explicit dictate of provoking Russia, the West pressuring Ukraine to not accept the generous settlement offered by Russia in May after the war started, all that doesn't count?
- Ukraine decided. To vote a comedian to a serious office.
  They were probably hoping for a comedy, but what they have got is a tragedy.
  Russia is doing what it had promised to do in its earlier agreements with Ukraine. It can't be blamed if the electorate in another country doesn't take things seriously.

WW3, eventually. The regime won't stop. The ambition is there to rebuild the USSR. That would mean starting a conflict with NATO and, if I'm lucky, NATO will actually involve.

So Putin who has said many of times how much he hates the USSR is trying to reform it? The fuck are you talking about? You're just a war monger

They will lose either way, but they'd have less debts to paid and less things to rebuild.

Also Ukraine will benefit from denazification, the ultranationalism pushed by the ukranian nationalists only brings zero-sum situations for Ukraine and its neighbours not just Russia.

- problem, liberal?

The war will stop, simply put. NATO has been artificially extending this war for far longer than it should have been given the circumstances.

Ukraine had a chance to do peace talks but they blew it trying to have their cake and fuck it too, so now they're going to lose it all.

What a downer. Blocked.
- Might as well block me too while you're at it

Zelensky will finally have to negotiate and end the war (that is, if he wouldn't get overthrown/killed before that), and millions of Ukrainians will finally get to live without fear of them/their husbands/fathers/etc. getting kidnapped on the streets and being sent to army to die or get permanently wounded.

Russia has typically been great to non-ethnic Russians, right?
- Ukrainians in Crimea and other annexed territories [that are not close to the front lines] have more or less normal life now. They can continue living where they live, or they can at any moment return to Ukraine, nobody is holding them hostage, they are free!
  On the other hand, Ukrainians who failed to escape Ukraine don't really have a choice other live in fear that today might be the day they (or their family) get kidnapped and sent to the army, or try to escape and get caught by "heroes" of the border patrol who carefully watch that nobody escape the meat grinder (unless they give them a hefty bribe).
Found the Russian loyalist apparently.
- So, wanting my family that is trapped in Ukraine to stay alive makes me a Russian loyalist? How so?