The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right? | Politico
Just a moment...
It’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.
Teenagers aren’t well known for having landline phones and/or answering calls from unknown numbers.
Even if this were an accurate take on how modern polls were conducted, teenagers not responding to the pollster doesn't equate to fewer teenagers being willing to vote for Biden. You have to have actual responses to determine that.
So what?
So until polls find a different way to poll the population, they will become more and more unreliable and inaccurate. The polls before the last two elections (2020, 2022) were way off. They’re just going to lose more and more accuracy as more and more gen z and eventually gen alpha vote.
That's how these people get their data
When you do something right, it makes headlines for an hour. When something bad happens, the "liberal" news spends months talking about the Biden administration is failing while somehow never talking about the root cause.
To be fair, the problem currently is a terrorist attack has been responded to with genocide and that's still ongoing.
That shouldn't be out of the news cycle, or even the top story spot.
Anything to pressure the president to actually take action to hault a genocide is worth doing. The threat he might lose an election due to low turn out is real. He can change that before November but the longer he fails to take action, the fewer voters will be willing to look past his delay and inaction.
I agree in theory. But here's the problem. We need to pressure the public first. Otherwise it's a lose-lose for Biden. We need the public to demand it like they demanded Ukraine support. Not just from the activists and progressives, but from the centrists and low-information voters. If you don't do that, then his best bet is to keep supporting Israel like it's a surrogate country.
It seems the billions the billionaire foundation networks have spent to shift the country right and create a network of friendly legislatures to obstruct any progressive policy has paid off. Please read the book “Dark Money” by Jane Mayer to understand how truly deep this well coordinated problem goes.
Television station creates panic, suggest you keep watching TV to stay on top of it.
Tune in at 11 for more
Headline law say no
I feel like polls are on the level of rolling a d20 at this point.
I would guess actual polling error or “polling error” based on the fact that campaigning really hasn’t started in earnest. (Biden is still hiring senior staff in Pennsylvania and Trump hasn’t even opened an office there yet.) We should probably expect polling to be all over the place before late September or so, especially with cross-tabs and the tiny sample sizes. Barely anyone is spending the money for high quality polls yet (except maybe the campaigns but they don’t release those).
It’s obvious that there’s real anger about the Gaza war crimes and inflation (which no president controls but people think they do). But a lot of young people are genuinely undecided. If it’s your first or second presidential election, you inevitably make your mind up later than if you already have a party.
It passes the smell test. Maybe the Democrats should consider taking positions that represent the people.
Are they closer than the positions the GOP offers?
"Hey, we're less awful than the GOP. vote for us"
Is a reason to not vote for the GOP. However, it is not a reason to vote DNC.
"Hey, we care about you and are taking these steps to help you." is a reason to vote DNC.
Moving to the right because it's still less-far-right is going to lose votes. it's that simple.
Democrat: old genocidal ghoul
Republican: old genocidal ghoul
Nah, not really
I agree with everything you said. I don't believe in the party system at all. No issues should be grouped together. No parties. I vote dem since it's the best we can get. I live in a red state so it's not plausible to get anything fixed but I fight where I can. FPTGP and ranked choice are certainly my goals along with repealing citizens United. Getting back to the presidential election fund would be icing on the cake. I'm glad there's an interstate pact to bypass the EC. Last I checked it wouldn't get us to a popular vote without red states but it gets the issue out front and center.
I think there's some confusion about blue resolve to liberal issues. It's not that they don't want to implement them. They are not aggressive enough in the slim instances they do have the actual power to do so (maybe twice in the last 15 yrs by my count) for fear of reprisal. And their ability to convey a clear message or campaign is weak. Also negative messages are much easier to campaign on so they lose there as well. They are still heavily influenced by corporate lobby and some issues will always get buried in the current system.
Maybe stop helping slaughter Palestinians, then you wouldn't have this problem.
FALSE EQUIVALENCY!!! Joe Biden's genocide is a much more humane, you could even say, gentler, genocide than what Trump would do. Trump would be super obnoxious and mean about it. Biden makes it super clear he regrets having to do the genociding. He's even building a little island to deliver coffins by sea for the babies who are starving to death while hundreds of food trucks line up at the border!
It’s a failure of the news and social media. If they read about the massive green initiatives, increased corporate and wealth taxes, ending food supply chain greedflation, advancing equity and racial justice, student loan reimbursement, and housing affordability, they may feel differently.
Instead, they think Trump will “shake up the system.” All he did with his last term was roll back safety and environmental regulations on business, and implement a tax break that expired after four years for the low and middle class but remains intact for the wealthy today.
Just because people don't support Biden doesn't mean they're voting for Trump. This is a false dichotomy.
Unfortunately, that’s the nature of US elections. Maybe one day it’ll change, but for now these are the only votes that will carry through the Electoral College.
FWIW I’d love to see us remove the Electoral College, abolish Gerrymandering, and implement ranked-choice voting to introduce more parties to the table.
Unfortunately, there are only TWO choices in the 2024 election - you are either voting for democracy or dictatorship - period
Only one of two people is going to win. It’s about as true of a dichotomy as you can get in politics. Your other option is to throw away your vote, which is the same as not voting.